Silver Futures and Gold Futures Price are in a Primary Uptrend that Began in 2001 and will Run Until 2014 or Longer

Silver Futures and Gold Futures Price are in a Primary Uptrend that Began in 2001 and will Run Until 2014 or Longer

Gold Futures Price Today : 944.50
Change: 2.20 or 0.2%

Silver Futures trading price Close Today : 14.30
Change: 11.5 cents or -0.2%

Dow Futures trading Industrial: 9,565.36
Change: 56.08 or 0.6%

US Dollar Futures trading Index: 78.26
Change: 0.05 or 0.1%

Today has been a nutty day: everything rose, gold Futures trading price, silver Futures trading price, stocks, even the US dollar. Makes no economic sense, and can't be made to make sense. I've been thinking about the see-sawing between the dollar and stocks and metals. I have concluded we are seeing a flight to tangibles and out of dollars as the dollar is debased. Under that circumstance, even stocks are viewed as hard assets, i.e., at least they are "backed" by bricks and mortar and machines or a going business. Dollar supply expands, dollar falls in value, and people rush to tangibles (real value). Dollar rises, that implies $ supply is shrinking, which implies improving dollar value, so people drop tangibles for dollars. Yes, I know that stocks can only suffer under a severe inflation because interest rates rise and economic calculation becomes nearly impossible, but still they have some tangible value, so are viewed as better than dollars. In every hyperinflation, stocks undergo huge rises, but unfortunately that is only a nominal rise, and never keeps pace with real value, i.e., purchasing power.

This won't last. Wait till this fall when Comrade Obama floats another stimulus package and needs more trillions. He just re-nominated Bernanke for another term as Fed-head. Does anybody think that means Obama expects Bernanke to turn independent and oppose monetizing the debt? To refuse to monetize it? Question answers itself.

The scrofulous US dollar index rose 4.9 basis points to 78.256, still below critical 78.33 resistance. That it hasn't yet fallen off sharply suggests some dollar strength. The Silver Futures trading Price improved today, rose 11.5 cents to 14.31, above 14.25 resistance, but not by much. The Gold Futures trading Price rose US$2.20 to US$944.50, but both these rises are essentially noise, back and forth in a trading range bounded by 928 and 954. Only a close outside those levels will signal a big move. Otherwise metals are range-bound until the next economic crisis or financial panic emerges.

Unless the dollar rallies, metals will break out and rally to new high sometime early this fall, and trade in a range until then. If the dollar rallies, metals will swoon until that rally evaporates (as it inevitably will), then resume their rise as the dollar marches onward to its grave.Bottom line: US dollar and stocks remain locked in a primary (15-20 year) downtrend while silver Futures trading price and gold Futures trading price are in a primary uptrend that began in 2001 and will run until 2014 or longer.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's Futures Trading Price primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's Future primary is up targeting 16:1 Gold Futures Trading price, silver futures Trading price ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Future of Gold and Silver Price As on 25-08-2009

Like a Spring, the Gold Future Price is Coiling for a Break Out

Gold Future Price Close Today : 942.30
Change: -10.90 or -1.1%

Silver Future Price Close Today : 14.195
Change: -3.1 cents or -0.2%

Pliatinum Future Price Close Today: 1237.80
Change: -18.70 or -1.5%

Palladium Future Price Close Today: 283.75
Change: 2.50 or 0.9%


Gold and Silver Future Price Ratio Today: 66.38
Change: -0.915 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial: 9,509.28
Change: 3.32 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 78.22
Change: 0.18 or 0.2%

Sorry to keep starting every day with the scrofulous US DOLLAR, but right now that's where the action is. After breaking through 78.33 support on Friday, the dollar recovered 18.1 basis points today, rising to 78.221. Y'all will immediately perceive that 78.221 is not as great as 78.33, so the dollar remains below support in a downtrend. Unless it closes above 78.33, nothing changes in the outlook.

STOCKS today gave mixed messages, some indices up & some down. Confused markets don't usually rise. The Dow rose 3.32 to 9,509.28, while the S&P500 fell 0.56 to 1,025.57. Something new did pop up here: the Dow In Gold Future Dollars (DiG$) went to a new high for this lackluster rally, G$208.61 (10.091 oz). Because stocks have only very slowly and with great difficulty gained on gold future, I don't take that as a sign of anything more than the DiG$ nearing a peak in its rally. I don't expect it to better $215.00 (10.401 oz).

Speaking of confused markets, the GOLD Future PRICE today fell US$10.90 to close at US$942.30 on Comex, while silver future price rose 3.1 cents to a Comex close at 14.195. Now y'all understand why I hedged my comments Friday. The Gold Future price needed to follow up with a higher close today, but fell instead. Isn't that weak? Not really, because it didn't fall out of the triangle it has been trading in. I'm tempted to say (with Ned Schmidt) that gold Future Price is in the hands of traders, who are taking it back and forth to scalp small scalps. However, the technical pattern doesn't lie. Gold future price continues to trade within that triangle; falling out of the triangle would have spoken of terrible things, but Gold Future Price has not fallen out of it. And even-sided triangles can break out up or down. Like a spring, the gold price is coiling for a break out. It's a bull market, so it will most likely break out to the Upside.

The SILVER Future PRICE rose today, refusing to confirm gold's Future Price drop. Since silver Future price is the more volatile metal and the smaller market, that might be a bullish sign. Downside silver might fall to 13.60 without falling out of its upward channel. On the upside, silver future price needs to climb above 14.25, then challenge 15.00 again.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's Future Price primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; Silver's Future Price primary is up targeting 16:1 gold and silver future Price ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold future Price; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down of future asspects.

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Gold Future Price and Silver Future Price Trading

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As On Saturday 22-08-2009

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Gold Future Price Close Today : 953.20
Gold Future Price Close 14 August: 947.00
Change: 6.20 or 0.7%

Silver Future Price Close Today : 14.16
Silver Price Close 14 August: 14.715
Change: -55.50 cents or -3.8%

Platinum Future Price Close Today: 1,256.50
Platinum Price Close 14 August: 1,260.50
Change: -4.000 or -0.3%

Palladium Future Price Close Today: 281.25
Palladium Price Close 14 August: 276.00
Change: 5.250 or 1.9%


Gold Silver Future RatioToday: 67.32
Gold Silver Ratio 14 August: 64.36
Change: 2.96 or 4.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,506.96
Dow Industrial 14 August: 9,321.40
Change: 185.560 or 2.0%

US Dollar Index: 78.044
US Dollar Index 14 August: 78.801
Change: -0.757 or -1.0%

Yesterday's tense equilibrium in gold Future at US$940 gave way today. The GOLD Future PRICE burst upwards on open like a covey of quail, hit a high of $958, and closed on Comex at US$953.20, up $12.90. When gold popped, it ran to the next resistance level, that important $954-$955.

Now, this is an upside breakout, but to confirm gold Future must close above its last high, over US$961. Today gold broke out way above the downtrend line from early august. But a close over $965 is needed to break through the downtrend line from June.

If this is a genuine break-out, and not a fake-out, it will be a breakout that never looks back. Buy now or never.

This week's fall took the Silver Future Price below its trading channel, but today brought it back to that threshold. Silver Future jumped 28.4 cents to close at $14.16 on Comex. It wants to go higher. The weekly chart remains in an uptrend from last November -- strong as the proverbial garlic milkshake. Buy silver Future, buy silver Future.

The US DOLLAR INDEX fell through 78.33 support, dropping 34.7 basis points to 78.044. If the dollar now confirms this break by closing below 77.43, which had been the bottom of the upside-down head & shoulders, then the dollar will most certainly have set its scrofulous feet on the road to 74, and banana republic status.

Sound overcautious? Well, markets have been slapping me around for 30 years, so I've learned to be both chary, wary, and leery. In other words, I've learned respect. The only time a move is really sure is when it's over.

STOCKS surprised me (and others, I'll bet) by cracking 9,400 to rise to 9,506.96, up today 155.91. S&P500 did even better, rising 18.76 to 1,026.13. What gives? Sometimes the B wave of an A-B-C correction(down - up - down) is so strong that it exceeds the previous high. Or maybe stocks have completed their correction and started moving up again. Either way, this no more shows health than the fevered red cheeks on a dying man. Be wise, use stock market strength to sell stocks and convert proceeds into silver future or gold future.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (DiG$) has moved up very, very slowly, i.e., stocks have slowly edged up against gold. There's probably not another G$10 (0.4838 ounce) left in it. That hints gold Future should rise to overtake stocks.

On 21 September I will be speaking in Lexington, South Carolina about silver future and gold Future and about re-building local economies. That's really the only way we can get out of this economic swamp permanently. I'll announce the place as time grows nearer.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold Future and silver Future must be bought.

If Silver and Gold Future Prices Don't Break Today, they Won't Break Down Any Further

If Silver and Gold Future Prices Don't Break Today, they Won't Break Down Any Further

Gold and silver Future price and trading tips

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As on Thursday 20-08-2009

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Future Gold Price Close Today : 943.30

Change: 5.60 or 0.6%

Future Silver Price Close Today : 13.871
Change: -8.5 cents or -0.6%

Future Platinum Price Close Today: 1,242.50
Change: 8.50 or 0.7%

Future Palladium Price Close Today: 273.50
Change: 0.20 or 0.1%


Future Gold Silver Price Ratio Today: 68.01
Change: 0.815 or 1.2%

Dow Industrial: 9,272.66
Change: 54.72 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index: 78.51
Change: -0.50 or -0.6%

The Future Gold Price jumped at midday and knocked on $945's door, hard. Tomorrow might pierce that level, even resolve that long, narrow triangle to the upside (above $960). Low today was $931.90. Gold rose $5.60 to close on Comex $943.30.

The Future Silver Price Comex close made it look weaker than it was today. Future Silver closed down 8.5 cents at 13.8710, while the Future gold price rose. That's a non-confirmation, but what does it not confirm? Silver Future drop, or gold's rise? I say it is bullish, and Gold Future strong rise shows that silver's weakness is only passing. (Besides, if I were the NGM and wanted to manipulate gold lower, I would trash the Silver Future market first, where I get more bang for my manipulating buck.)

According to the NYMEX figures, silver supposedly dipped lower today, as low as 13.49 cents, but The Moneychanger never saw that. I never saw it below 13.84. When Future silver did hit that low, it shot up quickly over 13.90, stayed there most of the trading day, and traded higher in the aftermarket. That 13.8710 Comex close looks like somebody "painting the tape."

If I were short Future silver or Future gold, this day's action would send me scurrying to cover and go long. If Future silver and Future gold prices don't break today, they won't break down any further. Think about the US DOLLAR INDEX over the past four days. It bounced off 78.33 support last Friday and rallied Monday and Tuesday. Today shortly after the opening it collapsed off 79.10, and never stopped until it hit 78.34. (There's that number again.) It barely bounced to 78.4, fell again to 78.34, bounced barely, fell again to 78.4, then found sponsorship again and climbed to close the day at 78.506, down 50.1 basis points.

Hogwash. Since 78.33 forms such obvious support, a paranoid like me must suspect the Nice Government Men were busy with the Exchange Stabilization Fund buying dollars to jimmy the market. The dollar really looked weak today, and it has hammered on that 78.33 door once too often. I am tilting against a dollar rally, but dollar needs to break below 78.33 to confirm.

Stocks are just piddling back and forth. Dow closed up 54.72 at 9,272.66, S&P 500 at 995.63, up 5.96.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold Future primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold silver Future ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.